Weekly NFL Matchup Predictions
FootballPickEmPool.net will be providing weekly NFL match-up suggestions based on the Elo rating system. Basically, NFL teams are ranked each week to determine win probabilities for each game. Data blog FiveThirtyEight used this system during the 2014 season, and they gave a good explanation of how this works
Team rankings are updated each week. A team’s rating will always go up with a win and down with a loss. The amount it changes will depend on the rating of the opponent, their win probability and margin of victory. Aside from a small benefit to home field advantage, this system does not take into account factors other than past performance. So the health of a key player, weather, etc., are not considered.
So this system is best used as a supplement to other resources to predict outcomes, but it may help provide an edge, particularly in the hard-to-call match-ups.
Select the upcoming week to see predictions for your NFL pick ‘em pool sheet: